My Final Prediction on Biden vs Trump: Too Close To Call

Update 5 Nov: It looks like my prediction of a close election was largely accurate, and more accurate than most media outlets and polls.

My final gut instinct prediction for the 2020 US Presidential election is: too close to call. I give Biden a 55% chance of victory and Trump a 45% chance. This is largely based on apparent late gains by Trump making many swing states too close to call. I give Biden a slightly better chance based on his small polling lead in Pennsylvania.

Also, I understand that my preference for Biden over Trump could be biasing the estimate. I have a general tendency of being pessimistic about the side I support when I think that the contest is close (but not when I don’t expect it to be close, e.g. US 2016 or Australia 2019, in both of which I was falsely confident).

For the record, here is my past predictions track record:

Ones that I got wrong:
US 2016: Clinton 85%; Trump 15%; Trump won (my worst prediction ever)
Australia 2019: Shorten 70%; Morrison 30%; Morrison won
I also wrongly predicted the result of the Brexit vote (I gave Remain 2/3 chance).

Written by

TaraElla is a singer-songwriter and author, passionate about free speech, liberty and equality. https://www.taraella.com

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