I would change some of these:

5. Short-Term Economy - false because most people don't feel like the economy is good, period.

13. Challenger Charisma - false because most people don't like Trump, even many Republicans don't like him, and they seem to be increasing.

It would still be 8-5 to Harris.

However, as you said, we could also flip 7. Policy Change and 11. Foreign/Military Success depending on how you view these things. If we flip both, we would get 7-6 to Trump. Either way, it sounds like a knife-edge election.