I have calculated that, in the best case scenario, Biden could win by 412–126, if he takes states like Texas and Georgia. Of course, that’s still unlikely, but it shows how high the ceiling is for Biden, something that hasn’t happened for 30 years. On the other hand, Trump’s ceiling is very low, it could be below 300 (since Biden is very unlikely to lose PA), which is unusually low for an incumbent. Therefore, I think the kind of scenario you describe could indeed happen this year.